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Analysys Mason: Forget Wi-Max
30 Jul 2008 | 17.46 Europe/London
Mobile broadband is set to go from strength to strength but you can pretty much write off Wi-Max networks, according to the latest research from telecommunications researchers at Analysys Mason.
Its latest report predicts that mobile broadband use will grow rapidly along the same lines as we see today with subscribers using a mixture of 3G (or future improvements in mobile phone technology) and, when available, Wi-Fi hot spots.
Even by the end of 2015 the Analysys Mason figures predict Wi-Max will only have 100m customers worldwide from a mobile broadband user base of just over 2bn - equating to just less than 5%. Conversely, the High Speed Packet Access (HSPA)technology used today for mobile broadband and the Long Term Evolution (LTE) and Evolution-Data Optimised (EV-DO) technology that will provide the next generation of cellular phone technology beyond 3G, will account for the remainder of the market.
Put simply, Mark Heath, co-author of the Wireless Broadband Research Report from Analysys Mason, reveals that, despite being touted as providing ultra high speed wireless broadband for large areas, Wi-Max never truly made it out of the proverbial starting blocks in the mobile broadband race.
"Wi-MAX is being hampered by intense competition from fixed broadband services, such as DSL and cable, and, increasingly, cellular broadband services," he says.
"With the high cost of Wi-MAX terminals, the business case is not viable in many areas already covered by DSL and cable services. Also, there have been delays in certification of Mobile Wi-MAX equipment. Wi-MAX had a window of opportunity before the widespread deployment of DSL, but it has been too late in developing countries."
Heath believes Wi-Max can now be considered nothing more than a niche player because today's HSPA services can already deliver speeds of 1 to 3 Mbps and enhancements (HSPA+ and LTE) are around the corner that will allow it to go faster.
"For households situated a significant distance from a BT exchange, cellular broadband services may well deliver significantly higher data rates today than DSL," he points out
So, effectively, what we see now is what we will see in the future, he predicts, with speed improvements to existing technology rather than new networks, such as Wi-Max, being rolled out..
"Speeds and reliability will substantially increase. Furthermore, costs of providing services, and therefore prices to end users, will also significantly decline. For example, 3 charges only £7.50 per month for existing mobile subscribers for its Mobile Broadband service, which offers 3GB per month downloads. We will increasingly see examples like this.
"We also expect that just as Intel has taken a lead with internalising W-LAN into notebook PCs, with Centrino, we expect that the same thing will happen with HSPA."
Cost is a crucial issue which the Mobile Data Association recently revealed is holding back mobile broadband take up. Consumers, it is warning operators, are very wary of high cost plans which have stiff financial penalties for exceeding monthly data allowances. The MDA also pleaded with operators to cut the cost of data roaming (both within the UK and internationally) and introduce more all-inclusive tariffs.
The European Commission is also calling for lower international data roaming charges. Having already legislated to bring down the cost of making calls abroad, it has vowed to do the same for text messages and data if the operators do not reduce cost voluntarily by autumn.
Its latest report predicts that mobile broadband use will grow rapidly along the same lines as we see today with subscribers using a mixture of 3G (or future improvements in mobile phone technology) and, when available, Wi-Fi hot spots.
Even by the end of 2015 the Analysys Mason figures predict Wi-Max will only have 100m customers worldwide from a mobile broadband user base of just over 2bn - equating to just less than 5%. Conversely, the High Speed Packet Access (HSPA)technology used today for mobile broadband and the Long Term Evolution (LTE) and Evolution-Data Optimised (EV-DO) technology that will provide the next generation of cellular phone technology beyond 3G, will account for the remainder of the market.
Put simply, Mark Heath, co-author of the Wireless Broadband Research Report from Analysys Mason, reveals that, despite being touted as providing ultra high speed wireless broadband for large areas, Wi-Max never truly made it out of the proverbial starting blocks in the mobile broadband race.
"Wi-MAX is being hampered by intense competition from fixed broadband services, such as DSL and cable, and, increasingly, cellular broadband services," he says.
"With the high cost of Wi-MAX terminals, the business case is not viable in many areas already covered by DSL and cable services. Also, there have been delays in certification of Mobile Wi-MAX equipment. Wi-MAX had a window of opportunity before the widespread deployment of DSL, but it has been too late in developing countries."
Heath believes Wi-Max can now be considered nothing more than a niche player because today's HSPA services can already deliver speeds of 1 to 3 Mbps and enhancements (HSPA+ and LTE) are around the corner that will allow it to go faster.
"For households situated a significant distance from a BT exchange, cellular broadband services may well deliver significantly higher data rates today than DSL," he points out
So, effectively, what we see now is what we will see in the future, he predicts, with speed improvements to existing technology rather than new networks, such as Wi-Max, being rolled out..
"Speeds and reliability will substantially increase. Furthermore, costs of providing services, and therefore prices to end users, will also significantly decline. For example, 3 charges only £7.50 per month for existing mobile subscribers for its Mobile Broadband service, which offers 3GB per month downloads. We will increasingly see examples like this.
"We also expect that just as Intel has taken a lead with internalising W-LAN into notebook PCs, with Centrino, we expect that the same thing will happen with HSPA."
Cost is a crucial issue which the Mobile Data Association recently revealed is holding back mobile broadband take up. Consumers, it is warning operators, are very wary of high cost plans which have stiff financial penalties for exceeding monthly data allowances. The MDA also pleaded with operators to cut the cost of data roaming (both within the UK and internationally) and introduce more all-inclusive tariffs.
The European Commission is also calling for lower international data roaming charges. Having already legislated to bring down the cost of making calls abroad, it has vowed to do the same for text messages and data if the operators do not reduce cost voluntarily by autumn.