Broadband News
News, views and analysis
Immobile Internet?
26 Oct 2009 | 22.46 Europe/London
With mobile data traffic set to increase twenty-five fold by 2012, our mobile networks could soon be overloaded. That's according to data analysts Informa Telecoms and Media, which says we're facing online traffic jams on our phones if the network operators don't take action.
While mobile data traffic is set to rise so dramatically, mobile network revenues are only predicted to double over the next two years. "Revenues from data are increasing much slower than traffic," says Dimitris Mavrakis, mobile network analyst from Informa. "Where operators are experiencing exploding data traffic, revenues are not following them." This "decoupling" of revenue and traffic means that, just as investment in upgrading these networks becomes increasingly crucial, mobile phone networks may have neither the resources nor the incentive to shell out on infrastructure.
While Long Term Evolution (LTE) broadband is being touted as the solution, Informa point out it won't be widely available until late next year. As we reported earlier this month, O2 is currently testing LTE technology, with the likes of Vodafone and Orange also showing an interest. But mobile networks are already coming under strain in some areas - especially big cities. "The networks in developed markets in the UK and the US are starting to saturate," Mavrakis continues. " We see a lot of bottlenecks in data-centric areas such as London and New York."
Informa isn't the only prophet of the mobile data apocalypse. "The consumption rate is far outweighing the network improvement rate. There's a crunch point coming," Graham Carey from network optimisation firm Byte told BBC News. He's quick to remind us that, while mobile broadband is relying on radio networks that were originally designed for short telephone calls, users are demanding more and more out of the technology. "As far as users are concerned, they do not see the need to manage their consumption," he continues.
Making matters worse, the network operators have to deal with traffic being concentrated both in terms of location and the time of day - as vice president of network optimisers ADC, John Spindler, says."When you start looking at data applications, if you look at laptops or mobile handsets, a lot of that is not happening on the street corner. It is happening in conference rooms and convention centres," he told the BBC. And that's while "the primary use for wireless is happening indoors" and not mobile-based. "What's going to happen if carriers do not respond appropriately? They are going to crush the user experience."
With user traffic rising "exponentially," as Informa puts it - and LTE not yet a viable fix - there are stopgap measures. Mobile firms are already employing optimisation schemes to cut down on the amount of data they handle - for example, shrinking down web pages by cutting out white space that wouldn't in any case be visible on a cell phone. And, of course, base station equipment can always be upgraded. But the bottom line is that if the mobile networks don't see any profit in it, can we really expect them to splash out?
While mobile data traffic is set to rise so dramatically, mobile network revenues are only predicted to double over the next two years. "Revenues from data are increasing much slower than traffic," says Dimitris Mavrakis, mobile network analyst from Informa. "Where operators are experiencing exploding data traffic, revenues are not following them." This "decoupling" of revenue and traffic means that, just as investment in upgrading these networks becomes increasingly crucial, mobile phone networks may have neither the resources nor the incentive to shell out on infrastructure.
While Long Term Evolution (LTE) broadband is being touted as the solution, Informa point out it won't be widely available until late next year. As we reported earlier this month, O2 is currently testing LTE technology, with the likes of Vodafone and Orange also showing an interest. But mobile networks are already coming under strain in some areas - especially big cities. "The networks in developed markets in the UK and the US are starting to saturate," Mavrakis continues. " We see a lot of bottlenecks in data-centric areas such as London and New York."
Informa isn't the only prophet of the mobile data apocalypse. "The consumption rate is far outweighing the network improvement rate. There's a crunch point coming," Graham Carey from network optimisation firm Byte told BBC News. He's quick to remind us that, while mobile broadband is relying on radio networks that were originally designed for short telephone calls, users are demanding more and more out of the technology. "As far as users are concerned, they do not see the need to manage their consumption," he continues.
Making matters worse, the network operators have to deal with traffic being concentrated both in terms of location and the time of day - as vice president of network optimisers ADC, John Spindler, says."When you start looking at data applications, if you look at laptops or mobile handsets, a lot of that is not happening on the street corner. It is happening in conference rooms and convention centres," he told the BBC. And that's while "the primary use for wireless is happening indoors" and not mobile-based. "What's going to happen if carriers do not respond appropriately? They are going to crush the user experience."
With user traffic rising "exponentially," as Informa puts it - and LTE not yet a viable fix - there are stopgap measures. Mobile firms are already employing optimisation schemes to cut down on the amount of data they handle - for example, shrinking down web pages by cutting out white space that wouldn't in any case be visible on a cell phone. And, of course, base station equipment can always be upgraded. But the bottom line is that if the mobile networks don't see any profit in it, can we really expect them to splash out?